Thursday, December 30, 2010

Did Rihanna really make Matt Kemp Struggle?

Matt Kemp had a breakout season in 2009, but struggled in 2010. The question is, can we really blame this on his relationship with Rihanna during the 2010 season? At first glance, you would say Yes but its probably Overrated. If you look at his Raw totals such as Doubles(2B), HRs, RBI, and Runs scores you will see some actually went up while others are close enough that you can attribute it to the rest of the team's performance as to why they went down.

2B % Change HR % Change RBI % Change Runs % Change
2008 38
2009 25 -34.21% 26 44.44% 101 32.89% 97 4.30%
2010 25 0.00% 28 7.69% 89 -11.88% 82 -15.46%

As you can see, his doubles stayed the same and his homers actually went up. The Runs and RBI going down can dependent upon the batters in front of and behind him. However, the next set of stats will show that he might have stayed out late more than usual during this relationship.

SO % Change AB/SO
2008 35 11 76.1%
2009 34 8 81.0%
139 -9.15% 4.36
2010 19 15 55.9%
170 22.30% 3.54

He was a very good base stealer in 2008 and 2009 with over 30 steals in each season. Not only did this total went down but his success rate dropped like a roller coaster. Also, his strikeout rate was the worst since he's become an everyday player. That discipline starts to lack once you're too fatigue or distracted from things off the field right? Finally, there are his overall percentages.

BA % Change OBP % Change SLG % Change
2008 0.290
2009 0.297 2.41% 0.352 3.53% 0.490 6.75%
2010 0.249 -16.16% 0.310 -11.93% 0.450 -8.16%

His batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage all suffered in 2010 compared to 2008 and 2009. The slightest decline was in his slugging but as noted before his Homeruns and Doubles actually stayed on par.

So in conclusion, his relationship with Rihanna made him go "Hollywood" in Hollywood. His talent still shows but the finer points of his game suffered. It will be interesting to see whether his numbers go back to 2008,2009 form in 2011 as he is entering his prime(Fantasy owners be noted).

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Possible HomeRun Milestones in 2011

Using their career HRs/At-Bat ratio coupled with other Criterion I have concluded that these players are capable of hitting a Milestone for HRs. Most of these players are in Round Numbers, with the exception being Alex Rodriguez, where 630 will tie Ken Griffey Junior for 5th All-Time. I am also predicting when they will hit their Milestone based on certain pacing Criteria such as their average games played. Also Adrian Beltre has yet to Sign so I do not know where he will hit his 300th.

Team HR At Bats HR/AB Next Milestone

Alex Rodriguez Yankees 613 8826 14.40 630

Magglio Ordonez Tigers 289 6649 23.01 300

Aramis Ramirez Cubs 289 5728 19.82 300

Pat Burrell Giants 285 5320 18.667 300

Carlos Beltran Mets 280 6247 22.31 300

Adrian Beltre
278 6874 24.73 300

Mark Teixeira Yankees 275 4624 16.81 300

Guestimate of Date Opponent that day(Home/Away)
Alex Rodriguez 15-Jun Tex(H)
Magglio Ordonez 19-Jun Col(A)
Aramis Ramirez 12-Jun PHI(A)
Pat Burrell 28-Jun CHC(A)
Carlos Beltran 6-Sep FLA(A)
Adrian Beltre TBD
Mark Teixeira 3-Aug CHW(A)

Andy Pettitte: Hall of Famer?

If this truly is the end for "Andy the Dandy" many baseball fans will want to know, is he a HOFer?

Well, using Baseball Reference I decided to compare his career stats to those who divided into 3 categories:

1)Hall of Famers who are deemed to have similar stats to Pettitte. (Juan Marichal, Catfish Hunter, Whitey Ford, Carl Hubbell)
2)Pitchers with Similar stats that are his contemporaries. (David Wells, Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, Tom Glavine)
3)Pitchers with Similar stats but are not in the Hall of Fame. (Jack Morris,Dwight Gooden, Luis Tiant)

The case for Pettitte vs. Group 1
  1. His win percentage(.635) is higher than Juan Marichal(.631), Catfish Hunter(.574), and Carl Hubbell(.626)
  2. His wins per seasons pitched(15) is higher than Hunter(14.93) and Whitey Ford(14.75) which shows his over all consistency. (He has never had a season below .500)
  3. His strikeouts per innings pitch(.74) is higher than Marichal(.66), Ford(.62), Hunter, and Hubbell's(.47).
The case against Pettitte vs. Group 1
  1. He only has two 20-win seasons compared to Marichal(6) and Hunter(5)
  2. His WHIP(1.36) is higher than Marichal(1.10),Hunter(1.13), Hubbell(1.15), and Ford(1.22)
  3. His ERA(3.88) is higher than those four as well. Even using Adjusted ERA(116) it is below Hubbell(135), Ford(132), and Marichal(123)
The case for Pettitte vs. Group 2
  1. Again, his win percentage is higher than everyone in this group except for Mike Mussina(.638) which means that he has a better win percentage than a sure HOFer in 300 game winner Tom Glavine.
  2. Also, once again his consistency stands out as he has averaged more wins per season than anyone else in this group except for Mussina who also averaged 15.
  3. Everyone in this group only has one 2o-win season with the exception being Tom Glavine, who has 5.
The case against Pettitte vs. Group 2
  1. He easily has the worst WHIP of this group, with Mussina leading the way at 1.19.
  2. His ERA and Adjusted ERA are only better than David Wells(4.13, 108).
  3. He also has the least amount of complete games(25) in this group. The most being Kevin Brown(72) and Mussina(57, 23 Shutouts).
    With the number of times I've mentioned Mussina, he should be getting in the HOF before Pettitte does.
For this 3rd Group I will take a look at reasons why these guys should be in if Pettitte gets in.
  1. Luis Tiant has four 20-win seasons and a career WHIP of 1.20
  2. Dwight Gooden has just as good of win percentage(.634) and a WHIP of 1.26
  3. Jack Morris averaged 212 IP/season compared to Pettitte's 191 IP/season so who's really the work horse?
Final Supporting Stat: Left Handed Pitchers in the Hall of Fame and their Winning Percentages

Pitcher Win %
Whitey Ford 0.690
Lefty Grove 0.680
Babe Ruth 0.671
Sandy Koufax 0.655
Lefty Gomez 0.649
Andy Pettitte 0.635

So will he a HOFer? Some say I am leaving out his Postseason stats of 19-10, 3.83 ERA, and SO/BB ratio of 2.40. However, do remember he got to play in the Postseason 13 of the 16 years he has pitched so it is hard to compare him to other players. Also, with the 3-round playoff system, it is hard to compare him to actual HOFers who've pitched in 2-rounds at most during their careers. But as Tim McCarver noted, he is more than 100 games over .500 and he has the enough of a longevity to be considered for the Hall, so I say he gets in, but probably not on the first Ballot.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Had Larry Brown stayed Retired

If he had never coached the Knicks he would have a winning percentage of .571. But because he was chasing his win number 1000 he took a season with them and went 23 and 59, which pushed his career winning percentage down to .558. Also, after 2+ year stint at Charlotte, his career percentage has went down to .548.

However, even if he had stayed retired, he would not be in the top 10 in terms of win percentage. (Source:

Year Team G W L pct
2005-2006 NYK 82 23 59 0.280
2008-2009 CHA 82 35 47 0.427
2009-2010 CHA 82 44 38 0.537
2010-2011 CHA 28 9 19 0.321

274 111 163 0.405

vs.500 -52
ABA Totals

1972-73 CAR 84 57 27 0.679
1973-74 CAR 84 47 37 0.560
1974-75 DNA 84 65 19 0.774
1975-76 DNA 84 60 24 0.714

336 229 107 0.682

Career Totals
2338 1327 1011 0.568
ABA Totals
336 229 107
NBA Totals
2002 1098 904 0.548
Had he stayed Retired (After DET) 1728 987 741 0.571
Had he stayed Retired (After NYK) 1810 1010 800 0.558