Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Andy Pettitte: Hall of Famer?

If this truly is the end for "Andy the Dandy" many baseball fans will want to know, is he a HOFer?

Well, using Baseball Reference I decided to compare his career stats to those who divided into 3 categories:

1)Hall of Famers who are deemed to have similar stats to Pettitte. (Juan Marichal, Catfish Hunter, Whitey Ford, Carl Hubbell)
2)Pitchers with Similar stats that are his contemporaries. (David Wells, Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, Tom Glavine)
3)Pitchers with Similar stats but are not in the Hall of Fame. (Jack Morris,Dwight Gooden, Luis Tiant)

The case for Pettitte vs. Group 1
  1. His win percentage(.635) is higher than Juan Marichal(.631), Catfish Hunter(.574), and Carl Hubbell(.626)
  2. His wins per seasons pitched(15) is higher than Hunter(14.93) and Whitey Ford(14.75) which shows his over all consistency. (He has never had a season below .500)
  3. His strikeouts per innings pitch(.74) is higher than Marichal(.66), Ford(.62), Hunter, and Hubbell's(.47).
The case against Pettitte vs. Group 1
  1. He only has two 20-win seasons compared to Marichal(6) and Hunter(5)
  2. His WHIP(1.36) is higher than Marichal(1.10),Hunter(1.13), Hubbell(1.15), and Ford(1.22)
  3. His ERA(3.88) is higher than those four as well. Even using Adjusted ERA(116) it is below Hubbell(135), Ford(132), and Marichal(123)
The case for Pettitte vs. Group 2
  1. Again, his win percentage is higher than everyone in this group except for Mike Mussina(.638) which means that he has a better win percentage than a sure HOFer in 300 game winner Tom Glavine.
  2. Also, once again his consistency stands out as he has averaged more wins per season than anyone else in this group except for Mussina who also averaged 15.
  3. Everyone in this group only has one 2o-win season with the exception being Tom Glavine, who has 5.
The case against Pettitte vs. Group 2
  1. He easily has the worst WHIP of this group, with Mussina leading the way at 1.19.
  2. His ERA and Adjusted ERA are only better than David Wells(4.13, 108).
  3. He also has the least amount of complete games(25) in this group. The most being Kevin Brown(72) and Mussina(57, 23 Shutouts).
    With the number of times I've mentioned Mussina, he should be getting in the HOF before Pettitte does.
For this 3rd Group I will take a look at reasons why these guys should be in if Pettitte gets in.
  1. Luis Tiant has four 20-win seasons and a career WHIP of 1.20
  2. Dwight Gooden has just as good of win percentage(.634) and a WHIP of 1.26
  3. Jack Morris averaged 212 IP/season compared to Pettitte's 191 IP/season so who's really the work horse?
Final Supporting Stat: Left Handed Pitchers in the Hall of Fame and their Winning Percentages

Pitcher Win %
Whitey Ford 0.690
Lefty Grove 0.680
Babe Ruth 0.671
Sandy Koufax 0.655
Lefty Gomez 0.649
Andy Pettitte 0.635

So will he a HOFer? Some say I am leaving out his Postseason stats of 19-10, 3.83 ERA, and SO/BB ratio of 2.40. However, do remember he got to play in the Postseason 13 of the 16 years he has pitched so it is hard to compare him to other players. Also, with the 3-round playoff system, it is hard to compare him to actual HOFers who've pitched in 2-rounds at most during their careers. But as Tim McCarver noted, he is more than 100 games over .500 and he has the enough of a longevity to be considered for the Hall, so I say he gets in, but probably not on the first Ballot.

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